We suggest conducting a workshop with a diverse set of stakeholders and team members for Driver Identification.
A well-structured workshop can help participants map these drivers by analyzing the Push of the Present, Pull of the Future, and Weight of the Past, fostering a shared understanding of the dynamics influencing the development context.
Your agenda should allow time for context setting, breakout group activities, and plenary discussions for synthesis.
Here’s an example agenda. Modify it for your own purposes.
Download a PDF of the suggested agenda
Drivers of change: An Example from UNDP Uzbekistan
In Uzbekistan, the UNDP team leveraged foresight tools to support the country’s transition to a green economy. This process incorporated tools like the Futures Triangle and Horizon Scanning to identify drivers of change and develop scenarios for strategic decision-making. The insights generated were used to align policy recommendations with the updated Presidential Resolution No. 436 on green economic reforms.
Over 450 signals were identified through a distributed scanning process engaging global futurists, local experts, and government partners. Using the Futures Triangle, signals were analysed and categorized into the Push of the Present, Pull of the Future, and Weight of the Past.
The team identified 22 drivers of change, each representing critical forces influencing Uzbekistan’s green transition. Drivers such as “Demographic Dividend”, “Tech to the Rescue”, and “Fossilized Frameworks” were framed with detailed descriptions, implications, and exploratory questions.
Read more about the Uzbekistan Case Study here
The foresight exercises outlined in the previous sections—Horizon Scanning and Driver Identification—can yield much richer insights and more actionable outputs when designed to be participatory. Engaging a diverse range of stakeholders ensures that different perspectives, lived experiences, and technical expertise are included, enhancing the quality, legitimacy, and relevance of the outcomes.