While visioning articulates where you want to go, backcasting helps you determine how to get there.

It is a foresight method that involves working backward from a desired future vision to identify the steps, actions, and conditions required to make that vision a reality.

Unlike traditional planning, which starts from the present and extrapolates forward, backcasting starts with the end goal in mind and ensures that all activities are strategically aligned to achieve it.

The Importance of Backcasting for the CPD

Connects Vision to Action: It translates the aspirational vision statements created in the previous step into a practical and actionable roadmap.

Aligns Partnerships and Timelines: It helps identify the partners and timing required to enable success.

Sets Priorities: By identifying the sequence of interventions, backcasting helps UNDP focus on what needs to happen first, ensuring effective allocation of resources.

Informs the CPD's Results Framework: The outputs of backcasting provide content for the CPD's programmatic goals, milestones, and indicators.

Backcasting: Overview of the methodology

Backcasting typically follows a three-step process, starting with the vision and working backward to the present. Below is a step-by-step guide: 

The PDF version of this chapter has an example input for CPD that can be derived from the outputs of the Visioning and backcasting exercises.

Click here to download an empty Backcasting template

Click here to download an example workshop agenda for the backcasting exercise

Causal Layered Analysis Versus Backcasting for Programmatic design

When looking at the potential ‘input for the CPD’ that results from the backcasting exercise, you might have noticed an overlap with the output of the CLA exercise. This is because both tools, CLA and backcasting aim to design programmes that address development challenges. However, there are significant differences in their approach and the type of output they generate.

• Causal Layered analysis allows for a multidimensional understanding of the development challenge, exploring its underlying systemic causes, narratives, and worldviews. It helps design transformative change by addressing not just surface-level symptoms but also deeper structural and cultural dynamics.
• Backcasting helps you develop a time-bound roadmap of actions, milestones, and partnerships leading to the envisioned future. It offers clarity on the sequence of activities and the partners/resources needed at each stage.

Both Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and Backcasting are powerful tools for programme design, but they serve different purposes and yield distinct outputs. We recommend using CLA first to identify transformative interventions that address the root causes and systemic barriers of a development challenge. Once these interventions are designed, use Backcasting to create a structured roadmap that translates those interventions into actionable, time-bound steps.

Next, Read a recap of everything covered in this chapter

Move on to Chapter 4 on using foresight for risk management