Locations
Here are some handy rules of thumb while identifying drivers:
Drivers that incorporate all three dimensions are often stronger candidates for scenario development because they reflect a complete understanding of the system: the present-day momentum or forces driving change, the aspirations or opportunities that point to the future, and the barriers or challenges that must be addressed. Connecting all three dimensions can often enrich one's understanding of a driver, but it is not mandatory for every driver.
Drivers that incorporate all three dimensions are often stronger candidates for scenario development because they reflect a complete understanding of the system: the present-day momentum or forces driving change, the aspirations or opportunities that point to the future, and the barriers or challenges that must be addressed. Connecting all three dimensions can often enrich one's understanding of a driver, but it is not mandatory for every driver.
Sometimes, a driver might emerge with strong evidence for only two dimensions, that is fine. Below you'll find some examples of when this might happen. Use these to guide your decisions on identifying the drivers that are the most representative of your context.
This occurs when strong present trends collide with significant barriers from the past, but there is no clear aspirational vision yet.
For example, a Driver such as “Youth unemployment in rural areas” could have push-of-the-present signal/s related to ‘Population growth and lack of job opportunities’ and weight-of-the-past signals like ‘Historical underinvestment in rural education and infrastructure’, but there might be missing signals that represent the pull-of-the-future because there is an unclear or lacking future vision for job creation.
This often happens with disruptive or transformative emerging trends or aspirations with no significant historical inertia.
For example, a Driver like “Biotech promises to increase lifespans globally” could have the following signal clusters linked to it: Push of the Present: Increasing deaths due to preventable diseases + Pull of the Future: MRNA technology rapidly enhances vaccine development, but there is no signal from the Weight of the Past because there might be minimal historical inertia as this is a new technology.
This could occur when strong aspirational visions exist but are hindered by entrenched historical barriers, with no current momentum driving progress.
For example, a Driver like “Transition to climate-resilient agriculture” could have signals related to the Pull-of-the-future like ‘National plans for sustainable agriculture’ and weight-of-the-past signals like ‘Reliance on outdated farming methods and infrastructure’ but there are no signals that represent any frustration on the part of the farmers to adopt any new agricultural practices.