Locations
Once signals have been identified and organized, the next step is to identify drivers of change. Drivers are thematic clusters of signals, trends, and TIPPOs (Trends, Issues, Plans, Projections, and Obstacles) that represent major forces shaping the future. Drivers provide a foundation for the next stage of foresight exercises such as scenario development and challenge identification.
Using the Futures Triangle to Identify Drivers of Change
The Futures Triangle, developed by foresight scholar Sohail Inayatullah, is a tool for analyzing and organizing forces shaping the future.
By examining how the past, present, and future interact, teams synthesize signals into drivers of change. This triangulation process clarifies complex systems and ensures drivers reflect the full scope of forces influencing development pathways.
The Futures Triangle has three key dimensions:
By mapping signals across these three dimensions, teams can identify drivers—the most critical forces shaping the future.
Once you have the signals from your signals sprint, we suggest using the Futures Triangle to uncover patterns and forces of change from multiple perspectives. The value of this tool lies in its ability to enable us to explore the dynamics of change using a systems lens.
Any major driver of change is likely to have multiple forces influencing it- from the past, present, and the future. For example, concerns around climate change (push of the present) are driving the momentum towards renewable energy solutions (pull of the future) but they are obviously meeting resistance from fossil fuel companies (weight of the past).
By using the Futures Triangle, teams can identify clear, actionable drivers of change that reflect the interplay of past inertia, present dynamics, and future aspirations. These drivers will serve as the foundation for scenario development and the identification of key development challenges.