Locations
Horizon Scanning is a foresight methodology that systematically explores emerging trends, signals of change, and uncertainties across the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) domains. The goal is to identify shifts that could impact the country’s development context over the next 5–10 years. Horizon Scanning helps Country Offices:
- Recognize weak signals of emerging change.
- Map trends and uncertainties relevant to national and global development priorities.
- Develop an evidence base for identifying key development challenges.
Why conduct Horizon scanning for this section of the CPD?
In the context of the CPD—Horizon Scanning provides the foundation for understanding how the country’s development context might evolve in the future.
- The Common Country Analysis (CCA), which forms the basis of the CPD, often focuses on current challenges and well-documented trends. Horizon Scanning adds a forward-looking dimension by identifying weak signals of emerging opportunities and potential disruptors.
- Although using current data is important, relying solely on data that is currently available may lead your team to overlook long-term or systemic risks that could impact development priorities. Horizon scanning helps put emerging risks onto your radar- risks that may not appear in your quantitative data.
- Since the Cooperation Framework demands collaboration between UN agencies to address complex, cross-cutting issues, horizon scanning can help create a shared understanding of future challenges that can foster collaboration.
Essentially, Horizon Scanning transforms the CPD from focusing solely on today’s development priorities into one that considers tomorrow’s development challenges and priorities as well. This equips UNDP and its partners to navigate uncertainty and drive sustainable development outcomes.
