Introduction

In this chapter, we will walk through how to transition from a long list of development challenges—identified through foresight activities—to prioritizing the most critical challenges that the UNDP country office (COs) should focus on in their CPD. This section is essential for ensuring that UNDP’s work is strategically aligned, future-ready, and impactful. This process includes three key steps: 

Together, these three components will equip UNDP country offices with a pragmatic and visionary programme strategy for the future, ensuring that the CPD remains relevant, resilient, and impactful in an uncertain world. 

Challenge Prioritization 

Selecting which development challenges to address in a CPD is inherently complex.

Without a structured framework, prioritization can become subjective and biased, influenced far too much by the urgency of current issues. The custom scoring mechanism introduced in this guide helps to bring objectivity and structure to the process by: 

This mechanism is designed to foster debate, discussion, and consensus within the UNDP team, ultimately leading to the selection of the most relevant and impactful development challenges. 

Iterative Scoring: Balancing Individual Perspectives with Group Consensus

When making decisions about which development challenges to prioritize, each team member brings their own unique insights and experiences. Some may have expertise in specific thematic areas (such as climate resilience, gender equality, or governance), while others may have a better understanding of local contexts or political dynamics. Allowing team members to score the challenges individually first ensures that all voices are captured without bias or influence from dominant personalities in the room.

However, development priorities are never purely objective, and no single perspective has the full picture. That's why the second step—group discussion and debate—is critical. It allows team members to defend their scores, share insights, and gain new perspectives from their colleagues. This process helps surface blind spots, mitigate biases, and build consensus, leading to better, more robust decisions.

The iterative process also ensures that groupthink is avoided. Groupthink can happen when individuals are reluctant to voice dissenting opinions or when a dominant personality sways the group toward a particular decision. By starting with an individual assessment, team members can express their honest opinions. Then, during the group discussion, they have the opportunity to listen to alternative perspectives and adjust their views if needed, based on new information.

Before going into the details of how to facilitate this iterative scoring process, we will walk through a suggested set of parameters for scoring development challenges. 

Prioritization parameters and the Ranking system

Below, we list some core parameters that can apply across different contexts. However, each CO may wish to include additional context-specific parameters to reflect local priorities. We also include tips for developing custom parameters. The scoring will be done on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 indicates a lower score and 5 indicates a higher score.

Custom Parameters

Each CO may wish to add custom parameters that reflect local contexts or unique priorities.

The 'Ranking Survey' that you can duplicate and adapt to your needs also includes some placeholders for such parameters.

Click here to get copy of the scoring mechanism template.

The Iterative Scoring Process

The challenge prioritization scoring proposed in this guide is designed to be iterative. It allows for both individual reflection and group discussion before arriving at a final decision on which development challenges should be prioritized in the CPD.

This two-step process ensures that diverse perspectives are heard and incorporated while promoting collaborative decision-making that leads to stronger, more future-focused outcomes.

Step 1: Individual Scoring (Pre-Workshop)

Each team member working on the CPD receives the list of development challenges and the scoring table with the agreed-upon parameters (e.g., Strategic Fit, National Strategy Fit, Donor Fit, etc.). Team members score each challenge independently on a scale of 1 to 5 for each parameter based on their knowledge and understanding.

We suggest that these individual scores are collected anonymously to ensure that people feel comfortable sharing their honest opinions without fear of judgment.

Why This Step Is Important:

• Allows quieter team members to contribute fully.
• Captures a wide range of perspectives.
• Prevents dominant personalities from steering the discussion.

Step 2: Group Discussion and Consensus Building (Workshop)

• The facilitator presents the aggregated individual scores for each challenge, highlighting any areas of agreement or significant disagreement.
• For challenges where scores vary widely, team members are encouraged to explain their rationale for scoring a particular way.
• The discussion focuses on unpacking disagreements, with participants sharing their insights, data, or contextual knowledge to support their views.
• After the discussion, team members re-score the challenges collectively based on the new information and perspectives shared.

Why This Step Is Important:

• Encourages healthy debate and dialogue.
• Surfaces valuable insights and new perspectives.
• Mitigates bias and blind spots.
• Builds shared ownership of the final prioritized list.
   

The Final Scoring

At the end of the group discussion, the team should repeat the scoring exercise. This can be done in the workshop itself, or through another survey similar to the pre-workshop survey. Encourage participants to consider and incorporate the insights and perspectives gained during the workshop in their rating.

This final scoring will reflect a shared consensus, ensuring that the prioritized challenges are based on collective wisdom rather than individual biases.

Tips for Facilitating the Scoring Process

To make the iterative scoring process effective:

• Provide clear instructions for the individual scoring exercise and ensure all team members understand the parameters.
• Present the aggregated individual scores visually during the workshop (e.g., using a chart or spreadsheet) to make it easy to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.
• Encourage constructive dialogue, focusing on why individuals scored the way they did, rather than just the scores themselves.
• Create a safe space for discussion, ensuring that all voices are heard and that no one feels pressured to change their scores without reason.

The iterative scoring process ensures that the prioritization of development challenges is both objective and collaborative. By combining individual assessments with group discussion and consensus-building, UNDP teams can surface valuable insights, reduce biases, and make more informed, evidence-based decisions.

This process strengthens the quality of the CPD, and the discussions around the scoring offer valuable material to include in it. Therefore, ensure that a notetaker is on hand to capture the insights, perspectives, and rationale behind scoring the different development challenges. Last but definitely not least, this process builds shared ownership and accountability among team members, increasing the likelihood of successful implementation.

Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) for Programme Design

When designing programmes to address complex development challenges, it’s easy to fall into the trap of focusing on surface-level problems and short-term fixes. Traditional tools like the Problem Tree Analysis, often used in the Theory of Change (ToC) process, do a good job of mapping cause-and-effect relationships, but they tend to focus on immediate causes and direct solutions. While this is helpful, it doesn’t always uncover the deeper, systemic, and cultural barriers perpetuating the challenge over time. This is where Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) comes in. 

One key advantage of CLA is that it helps surface transformative solutions. Instead of simply reacting to the current state of the world, CLA invites teams to question existing narratives, reframe problems, and envision alternative futures. This makes it particularly well-suited for UNDP’s work, where innovation and adaptation are essential to achieving sustainable development goals in an uncertain, rapidly changing world.

For example, while a Problem Tree Analysis might identify a lack of job opportunities as a cause of youth unemployment, CLA would take this further by asking ‘What institutional systems contribute to this lack of opportunities?’, ‘What societal beliefs about education or work might limit young people’s choices?’, ‘ What cultural narratives reinforce ideas around success and employment?’.

By answering these questions, teams can design programmes that address systemic barriers, change perceptions, and create opportunities that are better aligned with future needs and realities.

CLA	Programme Design Insight
Litany What are the visible, immediate problems associated with this development challenge? How is this issue framed in public discourse? What short-term solutions are commonly proposed?	Prompt Questions for Programme Design: What short-term interventions can help alleviate the immediate symptoms? Are there any quick wins that can show immediate progress while we work on longterm solutions? How can we address misinformation or oversimplified narratives in public discourse around this issue?
Systemic Causes What policies, institutions, or systems contribute to this challenge? What economic, social, or political factors reinforce the issue? What barriers make it difficult to address this challenge?	What systems, policies, or institutions need to change to address this challenge? Are there policy gaps that we need to fill?• What social or economic structures are reinforcing this issue? What capacity-building interventions are needed to support systemic change?
Worldviews What beliefs or assumptions influence how this problem is perceived? Are there ideological positions that shape the current approach to the issue? What societal values impact the challenge and its solutions?	What societal beliefs or assumptions are perpetuating this challenge? How can we challenge harmful assumptions through education or awareness campaigns? Are there alternative worldviews that we can promote to change attitudes?
Myths & Metaphors What stories or metaphors are associated with this challenge? How do these narratives shape societal attitudes toward the issue? What alternative narratives could inspire different solutions?	What cultural stories or metaphors are shaping attitudes toward this issue? How can we introduce new metaphors or stories to change these attitudes? What communications strategies can we use to reshape societal narratives?

 Tips for Translating CLA Insights into CPD Content

Once you've completed the CLA and generated insights across the four layers, it's important to translate these insights into actionable content for the CPD. Here's how:

1. Summarize the Key Insights: Write a brief summary of the litany, systemic causes, worldview, and myth/metaphor insights for each development challenge.
2. Link the Insights to Programme Design: For each insight, describe how the proposed programme will address the issue at that layer.

For example, the litany layer insights will inform short-term interventions. The worldview and myth layers will inspire transformative, long-term strategies.

Example CPD Input from the CLA Analysis

Youth unemployment remains a pressing challenge. Rising rates of joblessness among young people are due to economic transitions, technological advancements, and a mismatch between education systems and labor market needs.

The most visible symptom of youth unemployment is rising joblessness due to a lack of formal job opportunities. Traditional responses often include job placement schemes and short-term vocational training. Outdated education systems, rigid labor market regulations, and limited access to finance for young entrepreneurs perpetuate youth unemployment. The analysis revealed that deep-seated societal beliefs around success and work limit young people's career choices. There is a widespread assumption that formal employment (e.g., government or corporate jobs) is superior to entrepreneurship or freelance work. At the deepest level, the analysis identified cultural narratives that shape perceptions of work. For example, the belief that "stability equals safety" pushes young people toward safe, formal jobs, while manual labor or vocational trades are often seen as low-status professions.

UNDP will provide youth with in-demand digital skills for remote work opportunities. UNDP will partner with ministries of education and vocational institutes to modernize educational curricula, incorporating future-ready skills such as digital literacy, AI applications, and green technology.

The key objectives of the programme are to:

1. Equip youth with future-ready skills to thrive in an evolving job market
2. Promote alternative career paths such as entrepreneurship, freelancing, and non-traditional sectors
3. Address systemic barriers in education, finance, and labor markets
4. Shift societal perceptions around success and work through public awareness campaigns

Key Takeaways:

The CLA-based approach used to design this programme ensures that:

• UNDP addresses both short-term and long-term challenges.
• The programme is holistic and future-ready, focusing on transformative solutions.
• The insights generated are actionable and directly contribute to the CPD content, ensuring that UNDP's programmes are relevant, impactful, and sustainable.

Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) for Programme Design in a Workshop

Below you will find step-by-step instructions for facilitating a CLA workshop to help UNDP COs design future-ready programmes for their CPD. The goal of the workshop is to ensure that UNDP programmes address both surface-level challenges and deep, systemic barriers, leading to sustainable, transformative solutions.

Workshop Objective

Generate content for the CPD that is forward-looking, innovative, and impactful.

1. Have a layered analysis of a specific development challenge using the CLA tool.
2. Programme design that addresses both immediate needs and long-term systemic change.

Workshop Output

A set of programme design insights for each development challenge, structured across the four layers of CLA, with clear recommendations for interventions to include in the CPD.

Download a Sample Workshop Agenda

Visioning Introduction

Visioning is a strategic foresight tool that helps teams articulate a desired future and imagine what success looks like in addressing a development challenge. In the context of the UNDP CPD process, visioning is a critical step in moving from problem identification (through tools like Causal Layered Analysis) to solution design by defining a future state that UNDP wants to achieve.

In the Programme Priorities and Partnerships section of the CPD, visioning helps the country office (CO) clearly define the future outcomes it aims to achieve through its interventions. This makes the CPD forward-looking and impact-driven, demonstrating a clear pathway to sustainable development goals (SDGs). By imagining the desired future state of a country or community, visioning helps anchor the CPD's programmes in long-term impact rather than short-term fixes.

The Importance of Visioning

Clarifies the End Goal: Visioning clarifies what success looks like for a particular development challenge, ensuring that programmes are impact-focused.

Aligns Stakeholders: It provides a shared vision for UNDP, government partners, and other stakeholders, creating alignment around common goals.

Drives Innovation: By focusing on desired future outcomes, teams are encouraged to think creatively and beyond immediate constraints.

Sets the Stage for Backcasting: Visioning provides the destination, while backcasting helps map the pathway to get there.

Overview of the Visioning Methodology

The visioning process starts by asking participants to imagine a future where the development challenge has been successfully addressed. It involves answering key questions such as:

• What does success look like? • What positive changes can we observe? • What are the key outcomes of UNDP's interventions?

The process typically involves four steps:

1. Define the Vision Scope: Clarify the specific development challenge or area of focus for the visioning exercise.
2. Articulate the Vision: Participants describe the desired future state in detail, considering social, economic, political, and environmental factors.
3. Identify Key Changes and Impacts: Highlight the key changes that would need to happen to achieve the vision.
4. Consider Partnerships and Stakeholders: Identify partners and stakeholders required to achieve the vision.

Visioning Tools

There are many engaging tools that enable creativity and help participants articulate future outcomes in a way that feels tangible and relatable. These methods also encourage participants to step out of the present constraints and imagine bold, transformative possibilities.

One such tool we recommend is the 'Future Cover Page'. This tool uses visual storytelling to articulate a vision. Participants design a magazine or report cover page depicting a desired future state.

How It Works:

1. In a workshop setting, provide participants with templates for a magazine or report cover (real or digital). Include placeholders for: • A title (e.g., "The Future of Youth Employment") • Cover images or illustrations that represent the vision • Headlines or key features that highlight milestones or achievements
2. Ask participants to design their cover page, representing the future they want to see.
3. Share the cover pages in plenary and use them to discuss key elements of the vision.

Why It Works:

• Allows participants to visualize success • Combines creative expression with strategic thinking • Produces artifacts that can inspire discussions and next steps

Facilitation of a Visioning Workshop with The Future Cover Page Tool

To get the most out of the visioning workshop, we suggest tackling one development challenge per workshop instead of trying to work on multiple challenges to save time. Visioning can be an extremely engaging exercise that creates buy-in and excitement in the team for the work they will embark on for the next programme cycle. It merits rich discussion and careful consideration of multiple perspectives, which requires time.

Encourage Imagination: Remind participants to think boldly and focus on what they want to achieve, not what they think is possible today.

Use Visuals: Provide materials like sticky notes, markers, or online collaboration tools (e.g., Miro, MURAL) to make the exercise more interactive.

Create Energy: These tools are inherently fun, so lean into the creativity to foster engagement and enthusiasm.

Workshop Components:

Headlines & Short Description

Create a headline and a short description that capture the desired future state for the development challenge.

Prompt Questions: • What headline would appear in a national newspaper if this challenge was successfully addressed? • What image or photo would accompany this story?

Key Milestones & Achievements

Identify the milestones that led to achieving the vision. Write a short narrative connecting the milestones to the overall vision.

Prompt Questions: • What specific programmes or initiatives contributed to this success? • What policy or system changes were crucial? • How did cultural attitudes shift?

Partnerships and Collaboration

Identify the partnerships and collaborations required to achieve the vision. Write a brief description of the role of each partner in achieving the vision.

Prompt Questions: • Which stakeholders played a critical role in driving change? • Who provided funding or advocacy? • How did partnerships enhance the impact of interventions?

Workshop Outcome

By completing the visioning workshop, your team would have achieved a significant milestone in the CPD development process. You have collaboratively articulated a clear and inspiring vision for each prioritized development challenge.

These visions reflect your aspirations, grounded in bold ideas and shared consensus.

Click here to download the PDF version of the Visioning Template

Backcasting: Mapping Pathways to Achieve the Vision

While visioning articulates where you want to go, backcasting helps you determine how to get there.

It is a foresight method that involves working backward from a desired future vision to identify the steps, actions, and conditions required to make that vision a reality.

Unlike traditional planning, which starts from the present and extrapolates forward, backcasting starts with the end goal in mind and ensures that all activities are strategically aligned to achieve it.

The Importance of Backcasting for the CPD

Connects Vision to Action: It translates the aspirational vision statements created in the previous step into a practical and actionable roadmap.

Aligns Partnerships and Timelines: It helps identify the partners and timing required to enable success.

Sets Priorities: By identifying the sequence of interventions, backcasting helps UNDP focus on what needs to happen first, ensuring effective allocation of resources.

Informs the CPD's Results Framework: The outputs of backcasting provide content for the CPD's programmatic goals, milestones, and indicators.