Dakar, Senegal — September 15, 2026: The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is calling on governments, donors, and humanitarian and development partners in West and Central Africa to invest in anticipatory action immediately. The agency warns that the 2026/2027 El Niño event is expanding risk areas for rainfall deficits—occurring against the backdrop of one of the world's most severe conflict-driven humanitarian crises, rather than a stable baseline capable of easily absorbing a climate shock.
 

According to UNDP Sub-Regional Hub for West and Central Africa based in Dakar, El Niño is already making its impact felt. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) places the probability of the event persisting into early 2027 at 98% to 100%, while the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) multi-model ensemble projects a strong episode peaking near 2.0°C by September 2026. However, unlike East or Southern Africa, where rainfall signals are relatively clear, West and Central Africa remains a region of genuine forecast disagreement. The WMO and the Copernicus Climate Change Service project below-normal rainfall from June to September across the Sahel, whereas the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) points in the opposite direction—towards a wetter-than-average central-eastern Sahel and a drier Gulf of Guinea.

The Regional Climate Centre for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET RCC-WAS), through its updated 2026 PRESASS regional outlook, highlights its forecasts by indicating a significant expansion of areas with a high probability of rainfall deficits for the August–September–October period. This trend is particularly marked in the Western Sahel (e.g., Chad). Arriving after several years marked by large-scale flooding, these drought risks call for heightened vigilance.

According to our analysts, this is not primarily a humanitarian signal—it is a development alert layered onto a region already in crisis. An estimated 41.8 million people were already experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse (Cadre Harmonisé Phase 3+) in West Africa and the Sahel between October and December 2025—a figure projected to reach 52.8 million during the June–August 2026 lean season, regardless of this year's rainfall outcomes.

Conflict, Not Climate, Remains the Primary Driver of Need

UNDP analysis identifies conflicts in the Central Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as the primary drivers of some of the largest displacement and food insecurity burdens in the world. Climate stress acts as a threat multiplier on existing conflicts—by intensifying competition over water, pasture, and agricultural land, disrupting pastoral transhumance routes, and complicating humanitarian access—rather than as a standalone hazard.

This dynamic is particularly acute in the Lake Chad Basin, the Liptako-Gourma tri-border area, the North-West and South-West regions of Cameroon, as well as eastern DRC, where an escalating war led by the M23/Congo River Alliance coalition continues despite a ceasefire framework negotiated in Doha.

A Funding-Constrained System Facing a New Shock

Compounding the risk, humanitarian funding for the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin has been sharply reduced. The World Food Programme (WFP) has already been forced to suspend or scale back assistance to millions of people in the region due to a lack of resources. UNDP warns that a climate shock hitting this already funding-constrained baseline will not be absorbed as it would in a better-resourced system, strengthening the case for early, lower-cost anticipatory investment. Every dollar invested in disaster risk reduction saves approximately 4 to 7 dollars in subsequent response and recovery costs.

A Distinct Risk Profile for Coastal Economies
 

Coastal West and Central Africa presents a different exposure profile from the Sahel. Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for roughly two-thirds of the global cocoa supply, have already suffered yield losses of 21% to 25% due to flooding and crop diseases during wetter-than-normal El Niño seasons—the opposite problem of drought—with direct consequences for rural incomes and global commodity prices that are already near record highs.

UNDP's Call to Action

UNDP calls on country offices, governments, and donors to:

• Mobilize the AGRHYMET RCC-WAS PRESASS process to resolve forecast uncertainty at the national level.
• Integrate conflict sensitivity as the primary design framework for preparedness programming in the Lake Chad Basin, Liptako-Gourma, eastern DRC, and the North-West/South-West regions of Cameroon.
• Map humanitarian access constraints and identify community-based partners capable of operating in high-security-risk areas.
• Engage anticipatory financing with donors based on triggers combining climate indicators with conflict and access metrics.
• Support dual-track monitoring for the cocoa belt to hedge against both flood-related diseases and drought stress.

About This Note

This press release is based on the UNDP note titled El Niño 2026/2027 — Preparedness and Anticipatory Action: Drought, Floods, and Conflict — Regional Overview for West and Central Africa, prepared by the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Africa Unit of the UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa, with support from the Sub-Regional Hub for West and Central Africa based in Dakar, Senegal. The note draws on forecast intelligence from NOAA, WMO, Copernicus C3S, AGRHYMET RCC-WAS, NMME, FEWS NET, and the UK Met Office, as well as data from the Cadre Harmonisé, ACLED, and OCHA/WFP, updated as of June–July 2026.

Media Contact:

Jacob Enoh Eben | Head of Communications | PNUD WACA & Sénégal | jacob.enoh.eben@undp.org | Tel: +221 77 358 6662

Dan Vieira Da Costa | Spécialiste en communication | PNUD WACA & Sénégal | dan-vieira.da.costa@undp.org | Tel: +221 78 111 34 07