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Impact of the Twin Crises on Human Welfare in Myanmar

Dec 1, 2021

The report details the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent coup d’état in Myanmar. It builds on the report released by UNDP in early April this year titled COVID-19, Coup d’état and poverty: Compounding negative shocks and their impact on human development in Myanmar'. It also builds on the findings of a recent People’s Survey carried out from May-June 2021 and reconfirms that poverty headcount is likely to return to the levels not seen since 2005, effectively erasing the benefits of the pre-COVID-19 unprecedented economic growth.

The report notes that a significant amount of money (4.5 percent of pre-COVID-19 GDP) would be needed to bring the new poor above the poverty line. This additional spending is sizeable, given that pre-COVID-19 spending on social transfers was less than one percent of GDP.

The report informs that urban poverty is likely to increase by three-fold, also impacting the overall security of urban areas.  The poverty gap (measure of depth of poverty) is likely to remain high in the poorest states, though it is likely to increase by a higher margin in states and regions such as Mandalay and Yangon.

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