Scenario Examples

Scenario 1

Imagine a 15 year-old girl. She has to assist her mother in caring for her father. He is dying of AIDS and her baby brother is already dead. Her father who had been a gold miner has passed the virus to her mother. She found out after her baby became ill repeatedly and was diagnosed as having AIDS.

Her father has chronic repeated diarrhoea, and she has been taken away from school to nurse her father. She knows her father has had many women and became infected this way. He has passed the virus to her mother and she is now always tired and often sick. The family found out when the baby started getting sick soon after birth and was diagnosed as having AIDS.

Because her mother is constantly tired and often sick, she has to assist with changing and washing her father's clothes. Her younger sister and brother have to collect water and as a result are always late for school. The 5 year girl old is so overwhelmed with work that at times she is unable to attend school.

Other relatives have abandoned this family and refuse to be associated with them. The children are worried as to the likely outcome for their future when their parents die. Their father can no longer work and their mother is often too weak to cook or to attend to the family shop.

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Scenario 2

Recent studies undertaken in four of the main hospitals in the most highly populated islands indicate that 5-6% of pregnant women who are receiving antenatal care are HIV positive. Increasingly, men, women and their children are starting to show signs of opportunistic infections.

Gossip in small villages and towns has forced some of the women and their families to abandon their homes and income generating activities, for fear of what neighbours or close relatives may say or do. Some women, whose HIV status was disclosed by indiscreet health workers, have received anonymous threats and two have been publicly rejected.

Local social workers are saying that most women with HIV are monogamous and that their partners, some of whom are ill or have already died, refuse to acknowledge their own outside sexual activities.

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Scenario 3

The capital of this small and beautiful island is thriving with tourists who come by the hundreds of thousands from all parts of the world. The island as a whole has a population of 400,000 and on average, five tourists per inhabitant arrive yearly.

The infrastructure of the country has greatly benefited from the tourist industry income flow: from water and sanitation, roads that lead to five-star hotels, schools for children and adolescents, health-care facilities, a key international airport for the region, etc. Numerous hotels, large and small, restaurants, gift shops, car rental businesses, import-export agencies, provide inhabitants with some of the best paid jobs in the region.

However, the enormous flow of foreigners, and the constant travel of native inhabitants to other islands and far away countries have visibly changed the social customs of islanders, especially those related with sexual norms. Many young women date tourists for money or pleasure or both. Likewise, local men do the same with female and male tourists. There is little visible activity in relation to prevention of sexually transmitted infections, including HIV, and condoms are rarely visible in places where tourists and local people meet.

HIV infection has already been detected among young men and women on the island and yet there is reluctance at all levels and sectors to implement extensive prevention activities for fear of the possible impact of the epidemic upon the vital tourism sector.

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Chart: The centre of the Analysis

Levels of Impact:

• Individual


• Family


• Community


• Sector


• Region


• Nation

• Psychological


• Social


• Economic


• Services


• Political

The Economic Impact Of The Hiv Epidemic

PRESENTATION SUMMARY

The HIV and AIDS epidemics have important socio-economic implications which have negative impact on development efforts.

The consequences of the impact will be felt:

1. At the level of the household

¬ loss of income
¬ changes in budget allocation with:
· increased health direct and indirect costs
· lower savings
· lower productive investments
· increased rates of dependency

2. At the level of businesses

¬ increased production costs
¬ lower investments
¬ lower production

3. At the level of the Government

¬ decreased tax revenues
¬ worsened budget balance
¬ increase in expenditures for certain social services
¬ reduction in expenditures for infrastructure
¬ decrease in foreign exchange

4. At the level of the national economy

¬ fall of GDP growth

The scope and severity of the impact will depend on several factors, namely:

C the development phase of the epidemic;
C the prevalence of HIV infection and its geographical distribution among various socio - professional groups and economic sectors;

C the structure of the economy and the relative vulnerability of sectors to the impact of the HIV epidemic;
C the development of policies and programmes which are appropriate, effective, relevant, and timely.

This requires:

¬ National awareness of the issue
¬ National co-ordinated response
¬ Commitment of leaders and communities
¬ Enabling ethical and legal environment
¬ Responsible participation of persons living with the virus and persons affected by HIV
Mobilisation of the private sector