Figure 1
The waves of Impact of the Epidemic
EPICENTRE |
WAVE I |
WAVE II |
WAVE III |
WAVE IV |
SPREAD OF THE VIRUS |
TRAUMA, ILLNESS AND DEATH |
SURVIVORS |
SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT |
LONG-TERM POTENTIAL IMPACT |
Description |
||||
| Spread hidden, but increasing numbers of people becoming infected. | Psychological trauma; HIV oportunistic diseases appear; increasing illness and death. | Grieving and bereavement, children, elderly and others left without support. | Depletion of the labour force, adverse impact on productive and social sectors, shrinking revenues, loss of military strength. | Possibility
of social and political unrest, destitution, social and economic disintegration. |
Determining factors |
||||
Inequalities
of
Sexual norms and community values. Attitudes to women. Mobility. Ethical/legal environment. |
Extent of
spread Attitudes to affected Ethical and legal environment |
Clustering of
infection in households and communities dependency ratios Attitudes to survivors Ethical and legal environment |
Morbidity in
productive adults Clustering in occupations and geographically Gender role differentiation Structure of labour market and economy |
Effectiveness
and type of earlier policies and programmes Clustering in occupations and geographically Dependency ratios |