The figure above, based on recent research, shows potential changes (%) in national cereal yields for the 2020s and 2050s (compared with 1990) under a specific climate scenario. The two figures on the left reflect the inclusion of CO₂ effects, the figures on the right do not take into account CO₂ effects. Regions in dark brown are predicted to realise percentage reductions in crop yields while lighter shades depict lower reductions. Regions in green are predicted to experience an increase in yields.

In an effort to address the incorporation of actual adaptations to climate (a shortcoming of numerous crop modelling exercises), there is a growing literature on the economic impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector. Although economic research in developing countries is still in its infancy, this literature should be used as a complementary resource when assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacities. (View example.)

Overview

The vulnerability of the agriculture sector to both climate change and variability is well established in the literature. The consensus is that changes in temperature and precipitation will result in:

• changes in land and water regimes that affect agricultural productivity;

• changes in crop yields;

• especially vulnerable tropical regions;

• rural poverty increased as livelihoods are threatened.

Although estimates suggest global food production to be robust, significant regional disparities are likely. Poorer developing countries are likely to be especially affected.

Adaptation projects should focus on reducing vulnerability and/or increasing adaptive capacity of communities and/or ecosytems to climate change (including variability). Projects are expected to encompass a suite of adaptation measures including piloting measures, institutional strengthening and/or capacity building. Projects should include at least two of the above three elements.

UNDP Programme Officers are encouraged to draw on the latest scientific findings on the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector when formulating adaptation projects. The "Relevant Links" section below provides some starting points for additional information.

Funding for Adaptation Projects

Example of a Project

Project website: Coping with Drought and Climate Change
PDF B Document: Download

Relevant Links