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Drought, Climate Variability and CrisisExposure to climate variabiliy is unavoidable for many people. Climate variability, of which drought is a component, is a normal part of climate. It is a characteristic feature of the drier areas of the globe occupied by some 40% of the world's population. Nevertheless, drought is an 'extreme' climatic event or a climate shock: an extended period of unusually low rainfall. Some climate modelling exercises indicate that such rainfall variability is likely to increase, indicating that droughts will become more frequent and intense, making it necessary to prepare for and avoid potential crises - from the household up to the global level But drought does not have to trigger a crisis .. Drought by itself, particularly combined with low levels of development, is a common scenario around the globe. The economies of many African countries in particular still rely heavily on agriculture. Therefore any disruption to the agricultural economy can produce major shocks and these reverberate throughout the system. They affect markets and pricing structures. In the medium term they can even adversely affect the balance of payments. Indeed, entire national economies can be sent into recession and even low levels of development are subsequently affected, thus compounding the problems faced by the land user. The resultant food insecurity becomes difficult to resolve and further droughts only worsens the problem. Therefore factors other than drought must also be considered when looking at the causes and consequences of climate variability, particularly in developing countries. Drought is a major component of food insecurity but it must also be borne in mind that the political climate, national and regional agricultural and rural development policies and practices, the state of watershed management, as well as health and nutrition issues etc influence whether drought triggers a crisis. There are countries in southern Africa where the major issue in food insecurity is the presence of high prevalence of HIV/AIDS. As can be readily imagined, drought combined with HIV/AIDS can prove to be catastrophic.
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