Drought, Climate Variability and Crisis


Drought and the relationship between relief and development
In spite of all the progress made over the last five decades of development work, disasters still occur and the familiar crisis management is still observed and vitally important in saving and protecting people's lives in the short-term. But beyond the crisis, increasingly people are looking to tackle issues of vulnerability in an attempt to reduce losses from disasters and to establish a greater degree of security for exposed populations. There were attempts to encourage governments and donors to invest in disaster preparedness, with projects aimed at reducing the potential for disaster impacts. 'Disaster management' became a common approach to dealing with disasters, becoming an 'add-on' component to protect the investment made in development programmes. Increasingly, however, it is realized that the development process itself can be a cause of vulnerability to disasters such as those often triggered by a drought. According to this new line of thinking, levels of vulnerability have much more to do with the degree to which development has been successful, has devised and implemented appropriate policies, than simply the level of exposure to climate variability. In short, wealthier, more diversified and more globally inter-linked economies have more options to respond to the impacts of climate variability. However this does not mean that for a given economic situation that a country is stuck in a particular level of variability. Addressing climate variability and exposure to drought requires multiple approaches at multiple scales and over the short, medium and long term. It is precisely this integration, all in the context of sensible development policies, which together help an economy and a society to buffer the forces of nature.

-> Vulnerability and development
The more directly dependent a population is on a natural resource base the more vulnerable it will be to a disruption in the productivity of that natural resource base. This disruption can occur as a short shock (such as a sudden flood) or a long, less visible but debilitating erosion of its productivity (such as caused by drought). Often, the two occur together. This scenario is particularly true in the drylands, where the most limiting natural resource is water. An extended disruption in rainfall can trigger a crisis, sometimes even famine, on a catastrophic scale. This happened in the 1970's and 80's in Africa and the threat of drought and famine has stalked the continent since. Famines, where drought is a major contributing factor, happen throughout the world. UNDP's World Vulnerability Report (BCPR 2003), reveals that drought is the most damaging natural hazard around the globe. This assessment is not based on mortality rates alone, but death is the final and most severe consequence of drought. However, huge damage to society is induced by drought long before people begin to die: initially there are less visible but insidious effects such as erosion and loss of livestock, which ultimately undermine the capacity of a population to recover from a disaster and increases their vulnerability to subsequent droughts. An example of a drought vulnerable society is represented in the following diagram (click here to view the diagram).


The scope for mitigating the impact of drought is situation and scale specific
Drought affects both developing and developed countries, but the capacities to mitigate the effects of drought differ considerably, indeed even within one country from one region, community or household to another. Developed countries are able to afford to invest in systems to mitigate drought and have strong institutional frameworks that effectively provide collective insurance to cope with drought. The majority of the population in those economies have livelihoods that do not depend directly upon the amount of rainfall or the short term state of the environment. Furthermore, and critically, the relative wealth of the urban economy allows for the subsidization of the rural population when necessary; indeed this can lead to a culture of subsidies and protectionism of the rural sector. In a developing country this is rarely the case; a large percentage of drylands populations depend directly on the often degraded natural resource base and typically lack alternatives and/or have limited social safety nets to ensure food security.

In fact the problem is even more complex because at times it is not a question of lack of food itself in the granaries or shops but rather 'food entitlement' which needs to be addressed. In other words, the lack of capabilities, such as income, which allow one to produce or acquire available food. There are many factors that affect capabilities, for example a deterioration in the quantity and/or quality of potential labour due to HIV/AIDS. However, even if labour is available it may not be allocated to food production as it may be more attractive at the household level to exit the rural economy in the hope of better opportunities elsewhere. This could be due to artificially low food prices caused by the importation of subsidized staples from developed countries. This process selectively removes the most capable people from the rural economy but may improve social safety nets through remittances and income diversification.

There is no straightforward impact of drought, but it is clear that those populations at whatever scale who, for whatever reasons, are more vulnerable to the impacts of drought will be disproportionately affected by them. A drought mitigation strategy, therefore, must start by identifying the most vulnerable groups, determining the reasons for their vulnerability, distinguishing between those factors that can be addressed in the short, medium and long term, and integrating these actions into the broader development agenda. One possible vision of a drought resilient society, a diversified and complex economy, is represented in this diagram (click here to view the diagram) .
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Land Management Topics

Decentralized Governance of Natural Resources

Land Rights Reform and Governance