GDP per capita growth in selected post-conflict countries
Source: IMF, 2007a. (estimates for 2007); Heston, Summers and Aten, 2006.
PPP = purchasing power parity
Notes: Along the horizontal axis ‘End’ refers to the end of conflict; thus, for instance, ‘E-5’ refers to 5 years before the end of conflict and ‘E+5’ to 5 years after the end of conflict.
Countries emerging from conflict can recover successfully. Cambodia and Mozambique show particularly impressive post-conflict performances. By 2006, about 15 years after their wars ended, both countries had close to doubled their real GDP per capita (+95 percent and +107 percent, respectively). On average, Cambodia’s real GDP per capita growth was 5 percent per year over the period, while Mozambique’s exceeded 5.3 percent. These are tremendous achievements by historical standards. Mozambique has surpassed the highest level of GDP per capita it had reached in the five years leading up to war. It will soon exceed the level of real GDP per capita it would have reached had its respectable 1972-1978 real average growth rate of 2.3 percent not been interrupted by conflict. Cambodia’s economy collapsed completely during its long civil war. Despite its impressive post-war growth performance, it has not yet reached its 1971 real GDP per capita. Both countries’ performances have been accompanied by significant improvements in their poverty and human development indicators. Uganda and Rwanda have been on a slightly lower growth trajectory but they have also achieved a remarkable recovery. Other countries have not fared so well. El Salvador has also surpassed its pre-conflict per capita GDP level. With a 1.9 percent average annual growth rate since its 1991 peace accord, it is clearly on a lower growth trajectory than pre-conflict. Other Central American countries such as Guatemala and Nicaragua have not been able to find a path to sustained high growth either. Low or negative post-conflict GDP per capita growth has also been observed in Africa (Burundi, 0.4 percent, Côte d’Ivoire, -0.4 percent, Guinea-Bissau, -3.2 percent) and in Oceania (Papua New Guinea, -1.2 percent).
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