Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security
Overview
> Jump to impact by region
The vulnerability of the agriculture sector to both climate change and variability is well established in literature (download PDF). There is a consensus that changes in temperature and precipitation will result in:
-
changes in land and water regimes that affect agricultural productivity;
-
changes in crop yields;
-
especially vulnerable tropical regions; and
-
rural poverty increased as livelihoods are threatened.
Although estimates suggest global food production is robust, significant regional disparities are likely. Poorer developing countries are likely to be especially affected.
Adaptation projects should focus on reducing vulnerability and/or increasing the adaptive capacity of communities and/or ecosytems to climate change and variability. Projects are expected to encompass a suite of adaptation measures, including piloting measures, institutional strengthening, and/or capacity building. Projects should include at least two of these three elements.
Impact by region
The figure above, based on recent food production research (download PDF), shows potential changes in national cereal yields for the 2020s and 2050s (compared with 1990) under a specific climate scenario. The two figures on the left reflect the inclusion of CO2 effects, the figures on the right do not take into account CO2 effects. Regions in dark brown are predicted to realise percentage reductions in crop yields while lighter shades depict lower reductions. Regions in green are predicted to experience an increase in yields.
A growing body of literature addresses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture (download PDF), including the incorporation of actual adaptations to climate change (a shortcoming of numerous crop modelling exercises). Although economic research in developing countries is still in its infancy, this literature should be used as a complementary resource when assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacities. (Download example PDF.)
| |
|
