Adaptation definitions and levels
Definitions | Adaptation levels
Definitions
Adaptation: Changing existing policies and practices and adopting new policies and practices so as to secure Millennium Development Goals in the face of climate change and its associated impacts (UNDP unpublished, 2006).
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Adaptive capacity: The property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behavior in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability or future change conditions. The expression of adaptive capacity as actions that lead to adaptation can serve to enhance a system's coping capacity and increase its coping range. Adaptive capacity represents the set of resources available for adaptation as well as the ability of the system to use these resources effectively in the pursuit of adaptation (APF 2005).
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Adaptation Policy Frameworks: A structured process for developing adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to ensure human development in the face of climate change, including variability. The APF is designed to link climate change adaptation to sustainable development and other global environmental issues. The five components include 1) scoping and designing an adaptation project, 2) assessing current vulnerability, 3) characterizing future climate risks, 4) developing an adaptation strategy, and 5) continuing the adaptation process (APF 2005).
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Baseline scenarios: In the context of adaptation, a baseline scenario is a description of existing conditions as they relate to the sectors and systems to be targeted by an adaptation project, with an assessment of how these conditions might evolve in the future in the absence of the proposed adaptation interventions. Baseline scenarios should describe the existing climate-related risks faced by the target sector or system, and include an assessment of how these climate-related risks might evolve as a consequence of climate change. This assessment will be based on information from climate change scenarios and/or an extrapolation of existing trends in climate-related risks describing the likely consequences of exceeding the coping range in question, assuming no adaptation interventions are undertaken. This scenario will describe the immediate and longer term impacts of exceeding the coping range, and the implications for development. This analysis may draw on the experience of past episodes during which coping ranges have been exceeded, or on a more general assessment of the role and importance of the threatened systems or practices. The development benefits of an adaptation project will be assessed in relation to this baseline. (See APF Technical Paper 6.)
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Climate change: Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or because of human activity (IPCC 2001 in APF 2005).
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Climate change scenarios: Even where observed changes in climate form the basis for an adaptation project, potential future changes in climate must be considered in order to ensure that adaptation interventions are effective and sustainable.
 In some instances high-resolution information on future conditions may be available from models. Such data can provide quantitative estimates of the impacts of anticipated changes on climate on factors such as water availability, shoreline erosion and retreat, ecosystem loss, and so on. Information on such anticipatedimpacts may be used to design highly targeted adaptation projects.
However, in many cases, high-resolution data are unlikely to be available at the scale of the project. Many countries will need to rely on relatively low-resolution data from global climate models. These data consist of estimates of changes in temperature, rainfall and other climatic variables averaged over large areas, and represent specific periods in the future (e.g. 2020s, 2050s, 2080s). Such data are widely available (see Resources) and typically represent the output from a number of different models run with various different assumptions about greenhouse gas emissions and the climate system. Scenarios are not always consistent, and must be interpreted carefully in adaptation planning - they represent ranges of possible futures and should be used to inform adaptation projects, rather than as reliable predictions that tell planners precisely how future conditions be.
Project developers should consider a number of different climate scenarios in order to assess the range of predicted changes in key climatic parameters for the area in which the project will be located. In some cases different models/scenarios will provide reasonably consistent predictions, and this may be interpreted as strong evidence that, regionally, climate is likely to evolve in the direction indicated by the scenarios. These consistent projections might be used as a basis for arguing in favour of adaptation interventions designed to address that outcome, particularly where projections are supported by emerging trends in observational records.
Where different models predict very different climatic outcomes, it may be advisable to seek guidance on which models are likely to be most reliable for the region. Or it may simply mean that an adaptation project must work within these diverging projections. Enhancing the ability of a system to deal with future variability is sound grounds for adaptation projects, despite the lack of a clear direction of change in climate variables.
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Climate hazards and key climate variables: A climate hazard is a physically defined climate even with the potential to cause harm, such as heavy rainfall, drought, storm, or long-term change in climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation (APF 2005). A hazard maybe a transient, recurrent event with an identifiable onset and termination such as a storm, flood or drought, or a more permanent change such as a trend or transition from one climatic state to another. Hazards may be characterized in terms of climatic variables, and coping range may be defined in terms of the same variables for the various systems on which human populations depend.
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Climate risk baseline: A description of the current climate risk within the priority system (i.e. the probability of a climate hazard combined with the system's current vulnerability) (APF 2005).
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Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may result from natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability) or from variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability) (IPCC 2001 in APF 2005).
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Coping ranges and critical thresholds: The range of climate within which the outcomes are beneficial or negative but tolerable; beyond the coping range, the damages or loss are no longer tolerable and a society or system is said to be vulnerable (APF 2005).
Many systems on which human populations depend are viable within particular ranges of climate-related variables. For example, rain-fed agriculture will be viable only above a certain minimum rainfall threshold determined by the tolerance of the crops on which it is based. Likewise, certain crops will not be successful if conditions are too wet. Crops and livestock will also suffer if temperatures are too low or too high. Studies in northern Nigeria have indicated that food crises have been historically associated with rainfall reductions beyond a specific deviation below the long-term mean. Certain coastal systems will remain viable provided sea-levels remain above and below certain thresholds; a fall in sea-levels below a certain threshold may lead to desiccation of wetlands and estuaries, whereas a rise in sea-levels above a certain value may result in inundation or excessive saltwater intrusion.
The range of climate values under which a system is viable is referred to as the coping range of that system; with the upper and lower boundaries of the coping range defined by critical thresholds. These thresholds will vary depending on how systems are managed. For example, the introduction of water conservation measures and irrigation will expand the coping range of rain-fed agriculture, lowering the critical threshold associated with rainfall deficits.
Under existing management systems, climate change will increase the risk that the critical thresholds associated with the viability of many systems will be exceeded. Where adaptation seeks to reduce climate change related risks to existing systems, adaptation interventions will be designed to increase these systems' coping ranges. An assessment of the coping ranges of vulnerable systems is an important component of a baseline scenario. (See APF Technical Papers 4 and 5.)
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Establishing climate change risk: Once existing or potential climate change hazards have been identified, it must be demonstrated that these hazards pose a threat (or risk) to human populations or the systems on which they depend. A given system may be viable within a particular climatic range, referred to in the APF as the coping range. For example, the coping range of an agricultural crop might be defined in terms of a particular temperature range and minimum required rainfall. The coping range of a sea wall might be described in terms of maximum wave height or storm intensity.
As illustrated in Technical Papers 4 and 5 of the APF, current climatic variability may already result in coping ranges being exceeded on occasion. However, climate change may result in such events becoming more common, or in a permanent shift in mean climatic conditions outside of the coping range. In such instances, the system under threat will need to be modified so that its coping range is expanded to accommodate the new conditions. Where this is not possible, the system or practice will have to be replaced with an alternative or abandoned.
The identification of a climate change threat to a system or practice will be based on an assessment of its viability under projected climatic conditions. In order to demonstrate the existence of a climate change threat to a system targeted by project activities, a proposal must provide:
1. An assessment of the current viable climatic range (i.e. the coping range) of the system to be targeted by project activities, in terms of key climatic parameters. This assessment may be based on a general knowledge of the system in question (e.g. the water requirements of a crop, the design specifications of built infrastructure, etc), or previous episodes during which coping ranges have been exceeded (e.g. loss of crops, failure of flood control systems, etc).
2. Evidence that the current coping range under which the system or practice is viable is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change. This evidence may take the form of information indicating a reasonable likelihood that key climatic parameters will exceed the coping range in question more frequently, or permanently, based on climate model output, recent climatic trends or past analogues.
3. A baseline scenario describing the likely consequences of exceeding the coping range in question, assuming no adaptation interventions are undertaken. This scenario will describe the immediate and longer term impacts of exceeding the coping range, and the implications for development. This analysis may draw on the experience of past episodes during which coping ranges have been exceeded, or on a more general assessment of the role and importance of the threatened systems or practices. The development benefits of an adaptation project will be assessed in relation to this baseline.
These requirements represent sufficient evidence that particular climate change hazards, identified in assessments of future climate change, represent specific and identifiable threats to particular systems, based on a consideration of the coping range under which those systems or practices are viable. It is not sufficient to identify existing problems driven by non-climatic factors and contend that climate change will exacerbate these problems. Where existing systems are threatened by a combination of climatic and non-climatic drivers, adaptation projects may address the former provided that the latter are addressed through co-financing. Similarly, where plans exist to upgrade existing systems, introduce new systems, or address the adverse consequences of non-anthropogenic drivers on existing systems, adaptation funding may be available to enhance the resilience of these systems to anticipated changes in climate, provided projects produce additional cost logic.
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Exposure: A description of the current climate risk within the priority system (i.e. the probability of a climate hazard combined with the system's current vulnerability) (APF 2005).
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Hazards-based approach: One of several conceptual and analytical approaches to adaptation projects, this approach places its starting emphasis on the biophysical aspects of climate-related risk - i.e., the climate hazard. With the hazards-based approach, (also referred to as either the natural hazards-based or climate risk-based approach) a project can assess current climate vulnerability or risk in the priority system and use climate scenarios to estimate changes in vulnerability or risk over time and space (APF 2005).
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Mainstreaming: Incorporating climate change risks and adaptation into:
1. National policies, programmes and priorities: ensuring that information about climate-related risk, vulnerability, and options for adaptation are incorporated into planning and decision-making in key sectors, such as agriculture, water, health, disaster risk management and coastal development, as well as into existing national assessments and action plans, including Poverty Reduction Strategies and Priorities.
2. Development agency programmes and policies: ensuring that plans and priorities identified in development cooperation frameworks incorporate climate change impacts and vulnerability information to support development outcomes (e.g., UNDP Country Cooperation Framework, UN Common Country Assessment and UNDAF).
Ideally, integration should become a systematic process rather than a one-off process of utilizing climate information in decisions (UNDP draft Working Definition).
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Maladaptation: An action or process that increases vulnerability to climate change-related hazards. Maladaptive actions and processes often include planned development policies and measures that deliver short-term gains or economic benefits but lead to exacerbated vulnerability in the medium to long-term.
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Observed climate change signals: Climate change may be evident at spatial scales relevant to the project from instrumental measurements of climate-related parameters (e.g. temperature, rainfall, sea level, etc). These measurements may consist of records from meteorological stations or other monitoring systems. Instrumental records may reveal gradual trends in climate-related parameters, or more abrupt changes. Where trends have been sustained, or changed conditions associated with more abrupt changes have persisted for more than a decade, these may represent local or regional manifestations of climate change. In order to use such data as evidence for climate change, project developers should demonstrate that the changes in question cannot be explained in terms of known climate cycles or historically "normal" climate variability. The case for observed changes in climate-related parameters will also be bolstered if these changes can be shown to be consistent with the kinds of changes expected to result from climate change, for example based on data from computer models and associated climate change scenarios. All projects should consider future climate risks, based on future scenarios and augmented where appropriate by extrapolation of existing trends within the context of these scenarios.
Indications as to whether trends are evident in instrumental records should be available in the NAPAs and NCs, and instrumental data should be available from national meteorological services, environmental ministries and research bodies. In some cases, regional data from international bodies or neighbouring countries may be useful, for example if they demonstrate coherent climatic trends in the region. Quantitative, instrumental data may be augmented with qualitative data, such as surveys of local communities affected by climate risks. Qualitative sources may highlight local manifestations of climate change not apparent in instrumental records, particularly if meteorological stations are scarce. Qualitative sources based on community surveys are also useful in identifying and describing problems driven by climate change.
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[Adaptation] policies and measures: Usually addressed together in response to the need for climate adaptation in distinct, but sometimes overlapping ways:
Adaptation policies: Generally speaking, refer to objectives, together with the means of implementation. An adaptation policy objective might be drawn from the overall policy goals of the country, for instance, the maintenance or strengthening of food security. Ways to achieve this objective might include, e.g., farmer advice and information services, seasonal climate forecasting and incentives for development of irrigation systems.
Adaptation measures: Can be individual interventions or packages of related measures. Specific measures might include actions that promote the chosen policy direction, such as implementation of an irrigation program, or setting up a farmer information, advice and early warning programme. Both of these measures would contribute to the national goal of food security (APF 2005).
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Risk: The result of the interaction of physically defined hazards with the properties of the exposed systems — i.e., their sensitivity or social vulnerability. Risk can also be considered as the combination of an event, its likelihood, and its consequences — i.e., risk equals the probability of climate hazard multiplied by a given system's vulnerability (APF 2005).
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Resilience: The amount of change a system can undergo without changing state (IPCC 2001 in APF 2005).
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Sector: A part or division, as of the economy (e.g. the manufacturing sector, the services sector) or the environment (e.g. water resources, forestry) (APF 2005).
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Short- and long-term adaptation: Short-term measures deliver development benefits over timescales on the order of months to a few years. Short-term interventions will be appropriate to respond to near-term risks, where the impacts of climate change are already being felt and immediate action is required. They can be temporary solutions to climate change-driven problems that buy time for more sustainable adaptation through long-term interventions. Conversely, interventions that result in near term reductions in exposure and vulnerability may represent viable longer-term solutions. Whether an intervention is sustainable in the long-term will depend on the nature and magnitude of the climate change hazards faced. Projects funded under the LDCF should include interventions in order to deliver near-term developmental benefits; however, all projects must include some components intended to address adaptation over the long term.
Long-term measures deliver development benefits on a longer time horizon in response to future risks. Adaptation on a longer timescale provide the foundation for adaptation to new and evolving climate hazards over decades. These interventions involve the anticipation of future climate threats and the design and implementation of mechanisms to cope with these threats. Long-term interventions require careful consideration of potential future climatic conditions. Long-term interventions include those that seek to transform or replace existing systems (economic, agricultural, infrastructure, etc.) with alternatives that are more resilient under anticipated future conditions.
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Socio-economic vulnerability:An aggregate measure of human welfare that integrates environmental, social, economic and political exposure to a range of harmful perturbations (APF 2005).
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Strategy: A broad plan of action that is implemented through policies and measures. A climate change adaptation strategy for a country refers to a general plan of action for addressing the impacts of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. It may include a mix of policies and measures, selected to meet the overarching objective of reducing the country's vulnerability. Depending on the circumstances, the strategy can be comprehensive at a national level, addressing adaptation across sectors, regions and vulnerable populations, or it can be more limited, focusing on just one or two sectors or regions (APF 2005).
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Vulnerability: The degree to which a system unit is susceptible to harm due to exposure to a perturbation or stress and the ability (or lack thereof) of the exposure unit to cope, recover, or fundamentally adapt (become a new system or become extinct) (Kasperson et al., 2000.) It can also be considered as the underlying exposure to damaging shocks, perturbations or stresses, rather than the probability or projected incidence of those shocks themselves (APF 2005).
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Adaptation levels
Linkages between adaptation and sustainable development can be made at several different levels:
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Local level: The most severely impacted communities in developing countries will be those communities living in regions most exposed to climatic impacts (e.g., flood- and drought-prone areas).
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Sectoral level: The most adversely impacted sectors are likely to include agriculture, water resource management, coastal zone management and disaster (e.g., floods, cyclones, droughts) management.
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National level: Within and across sectors, an important feature of national policy-making will be the need to strengthen existing policies that enhance a country’s ability to respond to its vulnerabilities to climate change, while seeking to cease policies and actions that may lead to “maladaptation” to climate change.
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Regional and subregional level: Much of the climate change impact will be felt acutely at the regional and subregional level in West, Eastern and Southern Africa and South Asia. In these areas, regional and sub-regional planning and co-ordinated actions may be necessary.
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